Forex Market Commentary for July 2, 2007 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday and then early on Monday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The strong Eurozone PMI report was in line with the rallying European currencies. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a 1 ½-month high, surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3605. A close above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3679.
Initial support is at 1.3563. Next levels are 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday, but fell on Monday. It should attempt to slow down its decline today.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Monday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a 1 ½-month low and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a three-week high of 1.3539, nearly reaching the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The medium-term outlook is positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3553. A close above this pivot high would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3505. Next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday. It should attempt to extend its recovery today.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.00. Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Friday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a three-week low of 1.2216 on Friday and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The medium term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2190. Strong support follows soon at 1.2175. Below the pivotal support at 1.2149 dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2100.
Initial resistance is at 1.2250. Above the resistance at 1.2310 there is good resistance at 1.2350.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
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4 comments:
I like your method of analysis, especially the 50 points support and resistance.
Personally,if there is any trading tools that I use well,it is Fibonacci retracement and trendline. Another major tools that must be on my chart is 200EMA.
One good advantage of fibonacci retracement is that it suggests oversold region in an uptrend and overbought zone in a downtrend.It thereby makes it easier to filter entry signals as well as exit`s
Bosun
FxGlory remains my best broker since 2014.
. One of the most powerful statements about successful forex trading is "the trend is your friend." The fact remains that the unsuccessful traders occasionally do what the successful traders do regularly.A succesful trader respects trend and also imbibes great discipline and plans thoroughly.
Bosun
FxGlory remains my best broker since 2014.
In general, a beginner is never advised to trade against trends, or to pick tops and bottoms by betting against the main forces of market momentum. Join the trends so that your mind can relax. Fight the trends, and constant stress and fear will wreck your career.
Bosun
FxGlory remains my best broker since 2014.
Faulty analysis is rarely the cause of a wiped-out account. A career that fails to begin is never killed by the consequences of erroneous application or understanding of fundamental or technical studies. Other issues that are related to money management, and emotional control are far more important than analysis for the beginner, but as those issues are overcome, and steady gains are realized, the edge gained by successful analysis of the markets will be invaluable. Analysis is important, but only after a proper attitude to trading and risk taking is attained.
Bosun
FxGlory is a highly professional forex broker that provides help for traders via their forex world news and analysis services. Most of the time, I use their analysis to filter my trades and this helps alot.
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