Dollar gains should now be limited and expect to end the day lower
The Swiss economy appears to have gained second wind after a couple of months of slightly softer numbers. Following on from the recent PMI surveys the June Unemployment Rate has dipped to 2.5% and on an adjusted basis to 2.7%. These are below forecasts of 2.6% and 2.7%. The number of unemployed reduced to below 100,000 and at the same time job vacancies rose very slightly. With domestic demand still strong on the back of multi year lows in unemployment the outlook for the moment still looks positive.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) +0.9%
German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) +0.5%
German Factory Orders (YoY) +8.6%
Euro-zone OECD Leading Indicator
June
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Change 120K
U.S. Unemployment Rate 4.5%
U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls Change - 13K
News for the day so far is the strength seen in Dollar-Yen which has continued its rise as outlined this morning and looks to retest the 124.13 high seen on the 22nd June. It will hold for now but by next week we’ll be approaching 124.41 and later to 124.86 and possibly even 125.50.
The Dollar is still making some gains against the European currencies but this isn’t expected to move much further with the 1.3548-78 area expected to hold against the Euro and 1.2220-37 against the Swissie. This should turn into further Dollar weakness later on. Indeed, watch any weakness as the pattern that is emerging tends to suggest quite solid follow-through that should easily move above the 1.3681 high.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 124.08-39 1.3732-60 1.2222-37 2.0233-53
Res: 123.41-71 1.3658-78 1.2183-98 2.0131-38
Spt: 122.57-80 1.3548-78 1.2158-60 2.0060-76
Spt: 121.64-08 1.3490-04 1.2063-89 2.0015-42
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How Often Do Professional Forex Traders Trade?
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