Forex Signal & News 04/07/07

Dollar already beginning its correction
Swiss June CPI remained well under control registering a +0.1% MoM and +0.6% YoY rise which were just below forecasts of +0.2% and +0.7% respectively. Energy prices along with a seasonal increase in fruit and vegetable prices were the driving factors behind the rise but inflation remains very tame which will comfort the SNB.

The following economic releases are due today:

May
Euro-zone PPI (MoM) +0.3%
Euro-zone PPI (YoY) +2.4%
Euro-zone Unemployment 7.1%
U.S. Factory Orders - 0.8%
U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) +0.6%

June
U.K. Construction PMI 57.7

There is very little left for the market to react to with just the States Factory Orders holding any prospect of influencing prices. While there is a risk of minor new Dollar lows, on the whole the risk of losses on yesterday’s scale looks limited. More likely with tomorrow’s Stateside holiday and the BOE & ECB rate decisions on Thursday the market is likely to enter into a correction.

However it will provide further opportunities to sell into rallies to take advantage of the next leg lower from where another stronger rally is anticipated. Overall moves to 1.3760 Euro, 1.1972-00 Swissie and 2.0333 Pound are anticipated by next week.

Note important support and resistance areas:

USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 123.35-55 1.3678-81 1.2215-37 2.0233-53
Res: 122.45-72 1.3637-60 1.2170-93 2.0183-99

Spt: 121.64-85 1.3567-05 1.2090-15 2.0128-59
Spt: 120.76-91 1.3470-04 1.2044-60 2.0067-90



Forex Carry and Position Trades
Hello Everyone, Anomaly - Three open positions. Also we should have Custom Macd entries within the next week or two on all three of the long pairs with FGBP/CHF looking like it will be first and the EUR/AUD possibly on the short side. True Trend: USD/JPY entry date: 3/29/07 entry price:118.12 stop: 120.12 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently: +424 pips EUR/AUD entry date: 3/28/07 entry price:1.6501 stop: 1.6301 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently: