Dollar-Europe to head lower today
European numbers started the day with wholesale prices in Germany quite benign at +0.1% MoM and +1.9% YoY and below forecasts of +0.3% and +2.4% which will be welcomed by the ECB as maintaining a low inflationary profile. It will hardly changed their mind about the fact that the monetary policy is still accommodative but does bring the tightening cycle a notch closer – but not close enough to make any immediate impact.
This was followed by French Industrial Production for May which continued to under perform with a +0.4% MoM which was below forecasts of +0.7%. The figures will disappoint and no doubt have President Sarkozy knocking at ECB Governor Trichet’s door demanding that the central bank gives up its control of monetary policy. However, while moderating the French economy is still expanding albeit at a slower pace and the numbers will be enough to keep the prospect of another rate hike from the ECB alive.
An interesting comment has been issued by the Japanese government’s spokesperson Shiozaki who stated that the government wants the BOJ’s policies to match that of the government... but of course the monetary policy decisions are to be taken by the central bank. It seems a poor attempt to influence the BOJ by suggesting that the CB must take their own decisions – but only as long as it agrees with the government. I’m a bit lost there… No one is anticipating that the BOJ are going to hike rates this week anyway. Statements like these will not impact the currency at this point and while the Yen has strengthened again today it still hasn’t penetrated the 122.97 support.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
Italian Industrial Production (MoM) +1.1%
Italian Industrial Production (YoY) +0.6%
U.K. Visible Trade Balance GBP -6.6bn
U.K. Trade Balance Non-EU GBP -3.95bn
U.K. Total Trade Balance GBP -4.0bn
U.S. Wholesale Inventories +0.4%
June
German WPI (MoM) +0.3%
German WPI (YoY) +2.1%
The Dollar has been pushed higher against the Europeans in late Asian trading weighed down by the sales seen yesterday on the crosses. However, with Dollar-Yen also rallying we are seeing some upward pressure re-emerge in Euro-Yen and this may well trigger some profit taking to push this higher.
Figures due out this morning from Europe has seen a disappointing French IP with the Italian number due later. Never-the-less the Euro has bounced quite firmly against the Dollar and this should lead to further gains over the day. The underlying Dollar trend remains lower still for another 2-3 weeks and even if the Dollar manages to recover there is a good barrier at 1.3515 Euro and 1.2237 Swissie. More likely Dollar losses will resume directly and if so the move could be quite rapid reaching 1.3760 and 1.3827 Euro and 1.2066 and 1.2000 Swissie.
Equally, Dollar-Yen has recovered from key support and this is expected to resume its upward trend with break above 123.50-65 triggering gains to 124.39.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 124.13-39 1.3740-60 1.2237-70 2.0230-52
Res: 123.49-65 1.3640-58 1.2178-13 2.0169-80
Spt: 122.97-00 1.3594-00 1.2140-44 2.0096-33
Spt: 122.45-69 1.3513-48 1.2089-93 2.0000-15
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Monday, July 9, 2007
Forex Market Commentary for July 9, 2007 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar spiked up briefly on Friday following the strong employment report. But only the euro was a beneficiary. The immediate outlook for the dollar is sideways to higher.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made the expected decline only early on Friday, when it hit a four-day low. But the rally was unconvincing. But sell is only if below 1.3565 only on a closing basis. The medium term view is still bullish.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3635. A close above the pivot high at 1.3679 would signal a further aggressive attack to 1.3750.
Initial support is at 1.3570. Below 1.3530, the next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to a one-week high on Friday, It should attempt to rally today as well.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.10. Key support remains at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank to a one-week low on Friday after coining a 26 1/4-year high earlier last week. The overbought pair stands at the edge of the abyss.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0050. A break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Initial resistance is at 2.0150. Above 2.0195, resistance is still seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc slipped from a one-week high on Friday. The medium-term outlook remains mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.2205. Next level remains at 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.2140. Below 1.2100, strong supports follow at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar spiked up briefly on Friday following the strong employment report. But only the euro was a beneficiary. The immediate outlook for the dollar is sideways to higher.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made the expected decline only early on Friday, when it hit a four-day low. But the rally was unconvincing. But sell is only if below 1.3565 only on a closing basis. The medium term view is still bullish.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3635. A close above the pivot high at 1.3679 would signal a further aggressive attack to 1.3750.
Initial support is at 1.3570. Below 1.3530, the next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to a one-week high on Friday, It should attempt to rally today as well.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.10. Key support remains at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank to a one-week low on Friday after coining a 26 1/4-year high earlier last week. The overbought pair stands at the edge of the abyss.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0050. A break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Initial resistance is at 2.0150. Above 2.0195, resistance is still seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc slipped from a one-week high on Friday. The medium-term outlook remains mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.2205. Next level remains at 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.2140. Below 1.2100, strong supports follow at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Friday, July 6, 2007
Forex Signal & News 06/07/07
Dollar gains should now be limited and expect to end the day lower
The Swiss economy appears to have gained second wind after a couple of months of slightly softer numbers. Following on from the recent PMI surveys the June Unemployment Rate has dipped to 2.5% and on an adjusted basis to 2.7%. These are below forecasts of 2.6% and 2.7%. The number of unemployed reduced to below 100,000 and at the same time job vacancies rose very slightly. With domestic demand still strong on the back of multi year lows in unemployment the outlook for the moment still looks positive.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) +0.9%
German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) +0.5%
German Factory Orders (YoY) +8.6%
Euro-zone OECD Leading Indicator
June
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Change 120K
U.S. Unemployment Rate 4.5%
U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls Change - 13K
News for the day so far is the strength seen in Dollar-Yen which has continued its rise as outlined this morning and looks to retest the 124.13 high seen on the 22nd June. It will hold for now but by next week we’ll be approaching 124.41 and later to 124.86 and possibly even 125.50.
The Dollar is still making some gains against the European currencies but this isn’t expected to move much further with the 1.3548-78 area expected to hold against the Euro and 1.2220-37 against the Swissie. This should turn into further Dollar weakness later on. Indeed, watch any weakness as the pattern that is emerging tends to suggest quite solid follow-through that should easily move above the 1.3681 high.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 124.08-39 1.3732-60 1.2222-37 2.0233-53
Res: 123.41-71 1.3658-78 1.2183-98 2.0131-38
Spt: 122.57-80 1.3548-78 1.2158-60 2.0060-76
Spt: 121.64-08 1.3490-04 1.2063-89 2.0015-42
The Swiss economy appears to have gained second wind after a couple of months of slightly softer numbers. Following on from the recent PMI surveys the June Unemployment Rate has dipped to 2.5% and on an adjusted basis to 2.7%. These are below forecasts of 2.6% and 2.7%. The number of unemployed reduced to below 100,000 and at the same time job vacancies rose very slightly. With domestic demand still strong on the back of multi year lows in unemployment the outlook for the moment still looks positive.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) +0.3%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) +0.9%
German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) +0.5%
German Factory Orders (YoY) +8.6%
Euro-zone OECD Leading Indicator
June
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Change 120K
U.S. Unemployment Rate 4.5%
U.S. Manufacturing Payrolls Change - 13K
News for the day so far is the strength seen in Dollar-Yen which has continued its rise as outlined this morning and looks to retest the 124.13 high seen on the 22nd June. It will hold for now but by next week we’ll be approaching 124.41 and later to 124.86 and possibly even 125.50.
The Dollar is still making some gains against the European currencies but this isn’t expected to move much further with the 1.3548-78 area expected to hold against the Euro and 1.2220-37 against the Swissie. This should turn into further Dollar weakness later on. Indeed, watch any weakness as the pattern that is emerging tends to suggest quite solid follow-through that should easily move above the 1.3681 high.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 124.08-39 1.3732-60 1.2222-37 2.0233-53
Res: 123.41-71 1.3658-78 1.2183-98 2.0131-38
Spt: 122.57-80 1.3548-78 1.2158-60 2.0060-76
Spt: 121.64-08 1.3490-04 1.2063-89 2.0015-42
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Forex Signal & News 04/07/07
Dollar already beginning its correction
Swiss June CPI remained well under control registering a +0.1% MoM and +0.6% YoY rise which were just below forecasts of +0.2% and +0.7% respectively. Energy prices along with a seasonal increase in fruit and vegetable prices were the driving factors behind the rise but inflation remains very tame which will comfort the SNB.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
Euro-zone PPI (MoM) +0.3%
Euro-zone PPI (YoY) +2.4%
Euro-zone Unemployment 7.1%
U.S. Factory Orders - 0.8%
U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) +0.6%
June
U.K. Construction PMI 57.7
There is very little left for the market to react to with just the States Factory Orders holding any prospect of influencing prices. While there is a risk of minor new Dollar lows, on the whole the risk of losses on yesterday’s scale looks limited. More likely with tomorrow’s Stateside holiday and the BOE & ECB rate decisions on Thursday the market is likely to enter into a correction.
However it will provide further opportunities to sell into rallies to take advantage of the next leg lower from where another stronger rally is anticipated. Overall moves to 1.3760 Euro, 1.1972-00 Swissie and 2.0333 Pound are anticipated by next week.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 123.35-55 1.3678-81 1.2215-37 2.0233-53
Res: 122.45-72 1.3637-60 1.2170-93 2.0183-99
Spt: 121.64-85 1.3567-05 1.2090-15 2.0128-59
Spt: 120.76-91 1.3470-04 1.2044-60 2.0067-90
Forex Carry and Position Trades
Hello Everyone, Anomaly - Three open positions. Also we should have Custom Macd entries within the next week or two on all three of the long pairs with FGBP/CHF looking like it will be first and the EUR/AUD possibly on the short side. True Trend: USD/JPY entry date: 3/29/07 entry price:118.12 stop: 120.12 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently: +424 pips EUR/AUD entry date: 3/28/07 entry price:1.6501 stop: 1.6301 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently:
Swiss June CPI remained well under control registering a +0.1% MoM and +0.6% YoY rise which were just below forecasts of +0.2% and +0.7% respectively. Energy prices along with a seasonal increase in fruit and vegetable prices were the driving factors behind the rise but inflation remains very tame which will comfort the SNB.
The following economic releases are due today:
May
Euro-zone PPI (MoM) +0.3%
Euro-zone PPI (YoY) +2.4%
Euro-zone Unemployment 7.1%
U.S. Factory Orders - 0.8%
U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM) +0.6%
June
U.K. Construction PMI 57.7
There is very little left for the market to react to with just the States Factory Orders holding any prospect of influencing prices. While there is a risk of minor new Dollar lows, on the whole the risk of losses on yesterday’s scale looks limited. More likely with tomorrow’s Stateside holiday and the BOE & ECB rate decisions on Thursday the market is likely to enter into a correction.
However it will provide further opportunities to sell into rallies to take advantage of the next leg lower from where another stronger rally is anticipated. Overall moves to 1.3760 Euro, 1.1972-00 Swissie and 2.0333 Pound are anticipated by next week.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 123.35-55 1.3678-81 1.2215-37 2.0233-53
Res: 122.45-72 1.3637-60 1.2170-93 2.0183-99
Spt: 121.64-85 1.3567-05 1.2090-15 2.0128-59
Spt: 120.76-91 1.3470-04 1.2044-60 2.0067-90
Forex Carry and Position Trades
Hello Everyone, Anomaly - Three open positions. Also we should have Custom Macd entries within the next week or two on all three of the long pairs with FGBP/CHF looking like it will be first and the EUR/AUD possibly on the short side. True Trend: USD/JPY entry date: 3/29/07 entry price:118.12 stop: 120.12 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently: +424 pips EUR/AUD entry date: 3/28/07 entry price:1.6501 stop: 1.6301 targets: 1st reached, 2nd reached, 3rd none currently:
Forex Signal & News 03/07/07
Forex Market Commentary for July 3, 2007 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar plummeted on Monday as well in a market thinned by the proximity of the Independence Day holiday. The European and the commodity currencies should attempt to advance further up against the dollar and the yen. Tuesday will see the release of the pending home sales and the factory goods orders reports for May – these are not market movers.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a new high for the uptrend after surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3685. A break above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3750. Distant resistance looms at 1.3810.
Initial support is at 1.3595. Next levels are 1.3563, 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell to a nearly three-week low on Monday. It should attempt to rally today after getting support from the trendline.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 26-year high on Monday. The outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0180, resistance is seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0135. Only a break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Monday and reached the target of a bearish reversal formation in the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar plummeted on Monday as well in a market thinned by the proximity of the Independence Day holiday. The European and the commodity currencies should attempt to advance further up against the dollar and the yen. Tuesday will see the release of the pending home sales and the factory goods orders reports for May – these are not market movers.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a new high for the uptrend after surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3685. A break above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3750. Distant resistance looms at 1.3810.
Initial support is at 1.3595. Next levels are 1.3563, 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell to a nearly three-week low on Monday. It should attempt to rally today after getting support from the trendline.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 26-year high on Monday. The outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0180, resistance is seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0135. Only a break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Monday and reached the target of a bearish reversal formation in the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Monday, July 2, 2007
Forex Signal & News 02/07/07
Forex Market Commentary for July 2, 2007 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday and then early on Monday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The strong Eurozone PMI report was in line with the rallying European currencies. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a 1 ½-month high, surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3605. A close above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3679.
Initial support is at 1.3563. Next levels are 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday, but fell on Monday. It should attempt to slow down its decline today.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Monday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a 1 ½-month low and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a three-week high of 1.3539, nearly reaching the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The medium-term outlook is positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3553. A close above this pivot high would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3505. Next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday. It should attempt to extend its recovery today.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.00. Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Friday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a three-week low of 1.2216 on Friday and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The medium term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2190. Strong support follows soon at 1.2175. Below the pivotal support at 1.2149 dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2100.
Initial resistance is at 1.2250. Above the resistance at 1.2310 there is good resistance at 1.2350.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday and then early on Monday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The strong Eurozone PMI report was in line with the rallying European currencies. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a 1 ½-month high, surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3605. A close above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3679.
Initial support is at 1.3563. Next levels are 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday, but fell on Monday. It should attempt to slow down its decline today.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Monday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a 1 ½-month low and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
The dollar collapsed versus the European currencies on Friday on demand for carry trades and amid light volume at the end of the second quarter. Following a mild pullback, the European currencies should attempt to advance further against the dollar and the yen. Dollar/yen didn’t react to news that the Tankan business survey, showed confidence among large manufacturers was unchanged at 23 points in the second quarter and near the fourth quarter’s two-year high of 25. The US agenda opens with the release of the ISM manufacturing report for June.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged on Friday to a three-week high of 1.3539, nearly reaching the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The medium-term outlook is positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3553. A close above this pivot high would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3610.
Initial support is at 1.3505. Next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen held its own on Friday. It should attempt to extend its recovery today.
Immediate resistance is at 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Initial support is at 123.00. Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 2 ½-month high of 2.0075 on Friday. The medium-term outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0075, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. If the 1.9940 level gives way on a closing basis, look for further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell to a three-week low of 1.2216 on Friday and formed a bearish reversal formation, which targets the 1.2100 area. The medium term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is seen at 1.2190. Strong support follows soon at 1.2175. Below the pivotal support at 1.2149 dollar/Swiss franc has support at 1.2100.
Initial resistance is at 1.2250. Above the resistance at 1.2310 there is good resistance at 1.2350.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
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